home *** CD-ROM | disk | FTP | other *** search
/ TIME: Almanac 1993 / TIME Almanac 1993.iso / time / 013089 / 01308900.032 < prev    next >
Unknown  |  1992-09-23  |  11.3 KB

open in: MacOS 8.1     |     Win98     |     DOS

view JSON data     |     view as text


This file was not able to be converted.
This format is not currently supported by dexvert.

ConfidenceProgramDetectionMatch TypeSupport
100% file data default
66% TrID Atari XE Executable default (weak)
33% TrID MP3 audio default (weak)
100% lsar Split file default (weak)



hex view
+--------+-------------------------+-------------------------+--------+--------+
|00000000| ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff | ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff |........|........|
|00000010| ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff | ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff |........|........|
|00000020| ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff | ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff |........|........|
|00000030| 42 00 ff ff ff ff ff ff | ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff |B.......|........|
|00000040| ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff | ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff |........|........|
|00000050| 42 55 53 49 4e 45 53 53 | 2c 20 50 61 67 65 20 34 |BUSINESS|, Page 4|
|00000060| 36 01 01 4b 6e 69 74 74 | 69 6e 67 20 4e 65 77 20 |6..Knitt|ing New |
|00000070| 4e 6f 74 69 6f 6e 73 0d | 0a 0d 0a 0d 0a 54 6f 20 |Notions.|.....To |
|00000080| 66 61 74 68 6f 6d 20 74 | 68 65 20 62 6f 6f 6d 2d |fathom t|he boom-|
|00000090| 61 6e 64 2d 62 6f 72 72 | 6f 77 20 52 65 61 67 61 |and-borr|ow Reaga|
|000000a0| 6e 20 79 65 61 72 73 2c | 20 63 68 61 73 74 65 6e |n years,| chasten|
|000000b0| 65 64 20 55 2e 53 2e 0d | 0a 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 |ed U.S..|.economi|
|000000c0| 73 74 73 20 6a 65 74 74 | 69 73 6f 6e 20 72 69 67 |sts jett|ison rig|
|000000d0| 69 64 20 66 6f 72 6d 75 | 6c 61 73 20 61 6e 64 20 |id formu|las and |
|000000e0| 6d 6f 76 65 20 74 6f 77 | 61 72 64 20 61 20 6d 6f |move tow|ard a mo|
|000000f0| 72 65 0d 0a 70 72 61 67 | 6d 61 74 69 63 20 70 68 |re..prag|matic ph|
|00000100| 69 6c 6f 73 6f 70 68 79 | 0d 0a 0d 0a 42 79 20 4a |ilosophy|....By J|
|00000110| 4f 48 4e 20 47 52 45 45 | 4e 57 41 4c 44 0d 0a 0d |OHN GREE|NWALD...|
|00000120| 0a 0d 0a 20 20 20 20 22 | 49 20 77 61 73 20 69 6e |... "|I was in|
|00000130| 20 73 65 61 72 63 68 20 | 6f 66 20 61 20 6f 6e 65 | search |of a one|
|00000140| 2d 61 72 6d 65 64 20 65 | 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 73 74 |-armed e|conomist|
|00000150| 20 73 6f 20 74 68 61 74 | 20 74 68 65 20 67 75 79 | so that| the guy|
|00000160| 0d 0a 63 6f 75 6c 64 20 | 6e 65 76 65 72 20 6d 61 |..could |never ma|
|00000170| 6b 65 20 61 20 73 74 61 | 74 65 6d 65 6e 74 20 61 |ke a sta|tement a|
|00000180| 6e 64 20 74 68 65 6e 20 | 73 61 79 3a 20 60 4f 6e |nd then |say: `On|
|00000190| 20 74 68 65 20 6f 74 68 | 65 72 20 68 61 6e 64 20 | the oth|er hand |
|000001a0| 2e 0d 0a 2e 20 2e 27 22 | 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 20 20 20 |.... .'"|.... |
|000001b0| 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 | 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 | | |
|000001c0| 20 2d 2d 20 48 41 52 52 | 59 20 54 52 55 4d 41 4e | -- HARR|Y TRUMAN|
|000001d0| 0d 0a 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 20 | 20 20 52 6f 6e 61 6c 64 |...... | Ronald|
|000001e0| 20 52 65 61 67 61 6e 20 | 77 61 73 20 6c 75 63 6b | Reagan |was luck|
|000001f0| 69 65 72 2e 20 48 65 20 | 64 69 73 63 6f 76 65 72 |ier. He |discover|
|00000200| 65 64 20 61 20 70 61 73 | 73 65 6c 20 6f 66 0d 0a |ed a pas|sel of..|
|00000210| 73 69 6e 67 6c 65 2d 6d | 69 6e 64 65 64 2c 20 69 |single-m|inded, i|
|00000220| 66 20 6e 6f 74 20 65 78 | 61 63 74 6c 79 20 73 69 |f not ex|actly si|
|00000230| 6e 67 6c 65 2d 61 72 6d | 65 64 2c 20 65 63 6f 6e |ngle-arm|ed, econ|
|00000240| 6f 6d 69 73 74 73 20 77 | 68 6f 0d 0a 63 61 6c 6c |omists w|ho..call|
|00000250| 65 64 20 74 68 65 6d 73 | 65 6c 76 65 73 20 73 75 |ed thems|elves su|
|00000260| 70 70 6c 79 2d 73 69 64 | 65 72 73 2e 20 54 68 65 |pply-sid|ers. The|
|00000270| 79 20 70 72 6f 6d 69 73 | 65 64 20 52 65 61 67 61 |y promis|ed Reaga|
|00000280| 6e 20 74 68 61 74 20 68 | 65 0d 0a 63 6f 75 6c 64 |n that h|e..could|
|00000290| 20 63 75 74 20 74 61 78 | 65 73 2c 20 72 65 62 75 | cut tax|es, rebu|
|000002a0| 69 6c 64 20 55 2e 53 2e | 20 6d 69 6c 69 74 61 72 |ild U.S.| militar|
|000002b0| 79 20 6d 69 67 68 74 20 | 61 6e 64 20 72 65 64 75 |y might |and redu|
|000002c0| 63 65 20 74 68 65 0d 0a | 62 75 64 67 65 74 20 64 |ce the..|budget d|
|000002d0| 65 66 69 63 69 74 2c 20 | 61 6c 6c 20 61 74 20 74 |eficit, |all at t|
|000002e0| 68 65 20 73 61 6d 65 20 | 74 69 6d 65 2e 20 57 68 |he same |time. Wh|
|000002f0| 69 6c 65 20 74 68 65 20 | 50 72 65 73 69 64 65 6e |ile the |Presiden|
|00000300| 74 0d 0a 65 61 67 65 72 | 6c 79 20 66 6f 6c 6c 6f |t..eager|ly follo|
|00000310| 77 65 64 20 74 68 65 20 | 73 63 72 69 70 74 2c 20 |wed the |script, |
|00000320| 74 68 65 20 64 65 66 69 | 63 69 74 20 66 6f 72 67 |the defi|cit forg|
|00000330| 6f 74 20 69 74 73 20 6c | 69 6e 65 73 2e 0d 0a 49 |ot its l|ines...I|
|00000340| 6e 73 74 65 61 64 20 6f | 66 20 73 68 72 69 6e 6b |nstead o|f shrink|
|00000350| 69 6e 67 20 65 61 63 68 | 20 79 65 61 72 2c 20 69 |ing each| year, i|
|00000360| 74 20 61 64 64 65 64 20 | 24 31 2e 33 20 74 72 69 |t added |$1.3 tri|
|00000370| 6c 6c 69 6f 6e 20 74 6f | 20 74 68 65 0d 0a 55 2e |llion to| the..U.|
|00000380| 53 2e 20 6e 61 74 69 6f | 6e 61 6c 20 64 65 62 74 |S. natio|nal debt|
|00000390| 20 64 75 72 69 6e 67 20 | 52 65 61 67 61 6e 27 73 | during |Reagan's|
|000003a0| 20 74 77 6f 20 74 65 72 | 6d 73 2c 20 6d 6f 72 65 | two ter|ms, more|
|000003b0| 20 74 68 61 6e 0d 0a 64 | 6f 75 62 6c 69 6e 67 20 | than..d|oubling |
|000003c0| 74 68 65 20 74 6f 74 61 | 6c 20 62 75 72 64 65 6e |the tota|l burden|
|000003d0| 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 20 20 | 20 57 68 65 6e 20 47 65 |..... | When Ge|
|000003e0| 6f 72 67 65 20 42 75 73 | 68 20 62 65 63 61 6d 65 |orge Bus|h became|
|000003f0| 20 50 72 65 73 69 64 65 | 6e 74 20 6c 61 73 74 20 | Preside|nt last |
|00000400| 77 65 65 6b 2c 20 68 65 | 20 69 6e 68 65 72 69 74 |week, he| inherit|
|00000410| 65 64 0d 0a 74 68 61 74 | 20 6d 6f 75 6e 74 61 69 |ed..that| mountai|
|00000420| 6e 6f 75 73 20 6c 6f 61 | 64 2c 20 61 6c 6f 6e 67 |nous loa|d, along|
|00000430| 20 77 69 74 68 20 61 20 | 37 34 2d 6d 6f 6e 74 68 | with a |74-month|
|00000440| 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 | 63 20 62 6f 6f 6d 2c 20 | economi|c boom, |
|00000450| 74 68 65 0d 0a 6c 6f 6e | 67 65 73 74 20 70 65 61 |the..lon|gest pea|
|00000460| 63 65 74 69 6d 65 20 65 | 78 70 61 6e 73 69 6f 6e |cetime e|xpansion|
|00000470| 20 69 6e 20 74 68 65 20 | 6d 6f 64 65 72 6e 20 65 | in the |modern e|
|00000480| 72 61 2e 20 42 75 73 68 | 2c 20 77 68 6f 20 6f 6e |ra. Bush|, who on|
|00000490| 63 65 0d 0a 72 69 64 69 | 63 75 6c 65 64 20 52 65 |ce..ridi|culed Re|
|000004a0| 61 67 61 6e 27 73 20 70 | 6f 6c 69 63 69 65 73 20 |agan's p|olicies |
|000004b0| 61 73 20 22 76 6f 6f 64 | 6f 6f 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f |as "vood|oo econo|
|000004c0| 6d 69 63 73 2c 22 20 6d | 75 73 74 20 6e 6f 77 0d |mics," m|ust now.|
|000004d0| 0a 63 6f 6e 66 72 6f 6e | 74 20 62 6f 74 68 20 73 |.confron|t both s|
|000004e0| 69 64 65 73 20 6f 66 20 | 74 68 65 20 52 65 61 67 |ides of |the Reag|
|000004f0| 61 6e 6f 6d 69 63 73 20 | 6c 65 67 61 63 79 2e 20 |anomics |legacy. |
|00000500| 49 6e 20 64 6f 69 6e 67 | 20 73 6f 2c 20 68 65 0d |In doing| so, he.|
|00000510| 0a 77 69 6c 6c 20 74 75 | 72 6e 20 66 6f 72 20 65 |.will tu|rn for e|
|00000520| 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 63 20 | 61 64 76 69 63 65 20 74 |conomic |advice t|
|00000530| 6f 20 61 20 70 72 6f 66 | 65 73 73 69 6f 6e 20 74 |o a prof|ession t|
|00000540| 68 61 74 20 69 73 0d 0a | 73 74 72 75 67 67 6c 69 |hat is..|struggli|
|00000550| 6e 67 20 74 6f 20 66 69 | 6e 64 20 6e 65 77 20 77 |ng to fi|nd new w|
|00000560| 61 79 73 20 6f 66 20 75 | 6e 64 65 72 73 74 61 6e |ays of u|nderstan|
|00000570| 64 69 6e 67 20 74 68 65 | 20 75 6e 70 72 65 63 65 |ding the| unprece|
|00000580| 64 65 6e 74 65 64 0d 0a | 62 6f 6f 6d 2d 61 6e 64 |dented..|boom-and|
|00000590| 2d 62 6f 72 72 6f 77 20 | 63 79 63 6c 65 20 6f 66 |-borrow |cycle of|
|000005a0| 20 74 68 65 20 70 61 73 | 74 20 65 69 67 68 74 20 | the pas|t eight |
|000005b0| 79 65 61 72 73 2e 0d 0a | 0d 0a 20 20 20 20 46 72 |years...|.. Fr|
|000005c0| 75 73 74 72 61 74 65 64 | 20 62 79 20 72 65 70 65 |ustrated| by repe|
|000005d0| 61 74 65 64 20 66 61 69 | 6c 75 72 65 73 20 74 6f |ated fai|lures to|
|000005e0| 20 66 6f 72 65 63 61 73 | 74 20 61 63 63 75 72 61 | forecas|t accura|
|000005f0| 74 65 6c 79 20 61 6e 64 | 0d 0a 77 65 61 72 69 65 |tely and|..wearie|
|00000600| 64 20 62 79 20 79 65 61 | 72 73 20 6f 66 20 66 65 |d by yea|rs of fe|
|00000610| 75 64 69 6e 67 2c 20 65 | 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 73 74 |uding, e|conomist|
|00000620| 73 20 61 72 65 20 6d 6f | 76 69 6e 67 20 74 6f 77 |s are mo|ving tow|
|00000630| 61 72 64 20 61 20 6d 6f | 72 65 0d 0a 65 63 6c 65 |ard a mo|re..ecle|
|00000640| 63 74 69 63 20 79 65 74 | 20 70 72 61 67 6d 61 74 |ctic yet| pragmat|
|00000650| 69 63 20 70 68 69 6c 6f | 73 6f 70 68 79 2e 20 47 |ic philo|sophy. G|
|00000660| 6f 69 6e 67 20 6f 75 74 | 20 74 68 65 20 77 69 6e |oing out| the win|
|00000670| 64 6f 77 20 61 72 65 20 | 74 68 65 0d 0a 6f 76 65 |dow are |the..ove|
|00000680| 72 6c 79 20 72 69 67 69 | 64 2c 20 64 6f 67 6d 61 |rly rigi|d, dogma|
|00000690| 74 69 63 20 66 6f 72 6d | 75 6c 61 73 20 66 6f 72 |tic form|ulas for|
|000006a0| 20 70 72 6f 73 70 65 72 | 69 74 79 2e 20 4d 61 6e | prosper|ity. Man|
|000006b0| 79 20 61 63 61 64 65 6d | 69 63 73 0d 0a 61 72 65 |y academ|ics..are|
|000006c0| 20 61 74 74 61 63 6b 69 | 6e 67 20 74 68 65 69 72 | attacki|ng their|
|000006d0| 20 70 65 65 72 73 20 66 | 6f 72 20 67 65 74 74 69 | peers f|or getti|
|000006e0| 6e 67 20 73 6f 20 77 72 | 61 70 70 65 64 20 75 70 |ng so wr|apped up|
|000006f0| 20 69 6e 0d 0a 6d 61 74 | 68 65 6d 61 74 69 63 61 | in..mat|hematica|
|00000700| 6c 20 6d 6f 64 65 6c 73 | 20 74 68 61 74 20 74 68 |l models| that th|
|00000710| 65 79 20 63 61 6e 6e 6f | 74 20 75 6e 64 65 72 73 |ey canno|t unders|
|00000720| 74 61 6e 64 20 74 68 65 | 0d 0a 75 6e 70 72 65 64 |tand the|..unpred|
|00000730| 69 63 74 61 62 6c 65 20 | 64 69 76 65 72 73 69 74 |ictable |diversit|
|00000740| 79 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 | 20 72 65 61 6c 20 77 6f |y of the| real wo|
|00000750| 72 6c 64 2e 20 22 57 65 | 20 68 61 76 65 20 6c 65 |rld. "We| have le|
|00000760| 61 72 6e 65 64 0d 0a 74 | 68 61 74 20 74 68 65 20 |arned..t|hat the |
|00000770| 76 61 72 69 6f 75 73 20 | 73 63 68 6f 6f 6c 73 20 |various |schools |
|00000780| 6f 66 20 74 68 6f 75 67 | 68 74 20 61 6c 6c 20 68 |of thoug|ht all h|
|00000790| 61 76 65 20 69 6d 70 6f | 72 74 61 6e 74 20 65 6c |ave impo|rtant el|
|000007a0| 65 6d 65 6e 74 73 0d 0a | 6f 66 20 74 72 75 74 68 |ements..|of truth|
|000007b0| 20 69 6e 20 74 68 65 6d | 2c 22 20 73 61 79 73 20 | in them|," says |
|000007c0| 4d 69 63 68 61 65 6c 20 | 42 6f 73 6b 69 6e 2c 20 |Michael |Boskin, |
|000007d0| 64 65 73 69 67 6e 61 74 | 65 64 20 63 68 61 69 72 |designat|ed chair|
|000007e0| 6d 61 6e 20 6f 66 0d 0a | 74 68 65 20 50 72 65 73 |man of..|the Pres|
|000007f0| 69 64 65 6e 74 27 73 20 | 43 6f 75 6e 63 69 6c 20 |ident's |Council |
|00000800| 6f 66 20 45 63 6f 6e 6f | 6d 69 63 20 41 64 76 69 |of Econo|mic Advi|
|00000810| 73 65 72 73 2e 20 22 42 | 75 74 20 6e 6f 6e 65 20 |sers. "B|ut none |
|00000820| 6f 66 20 74 68 65 6d 0d | 0a 69 73 20 62 79 20 69 |of them.|.is by i|
|00000830| 74 73 65 6c 66 20 61 20 | 73 75 66 66 69 63 69 65 |tself a |sufficie|
|00000840| 6e 74 20 65 78 70 6c 61 | 6e 61 74 69 6f 6e 20 6f |nt expla|nation o|
|00000850| 66 20 77 68 61 74 20 67 | 6f 65 73 20 6f 6e 20 69 |f what g|oes on i|
|00000860| 6e 20 74 68 65 0d 0a 65 | 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 79 2e 22 |n the..e|conomy."|
|00000870| 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 20 20 20 | 4c 69 6b 65 20 42 6f 73 |.... |Like Bos|
|00000880| 6b 69 6e 2c 20 65 63 6f | 6e 6f 6d 69 73 74 73 20 |kin, eco|nomists |
|00000890| 6f 66 20 65 76 65 72 79 | 20 73 74 72 69 70 65 20 |of every| stripe |
|000008a0| 61 72 65 20 67 72 61 70 | 70 6c 69 6e 67 20 77 69 |are grap|pling wi|
|000008b0| 74 68 0d 0a 74 68 65 20 | 66 61 72 2d 72 65 61 63 |th..the |far-reac|
|000008c0| 68 69 6e 67 20 63 68 61 | 6e 67 65 73 20 74 68 61 |hing cha|nges tha|
|000008d0| 74 20 68 61 76 65 20 73 | 77 65 70 74 20 74 68 65 |t have s|wept the|
|000008e0| 20 55 2e 53 2e 20 64 75 | 72 69 6e 67 20 74 68 65 | U.S. du|ring the|
|000008f0| 0d 0a 31 39 38 30 73 2e | 20 41 6d 6f 6e 67 20 74 |..1980s.| Among t|
|00000900| 68 65 6d 3a 20 74 68 65 | 20 67 72 6f 77 69 6e 67 |hem: the| growing|
|00000910| 20 74 72 61 6e 73 66 6f | 72 6d 61 74 69 6f 6e 20 | transfo|rmation |
|00000920| 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 77 | 6f 72 6c 64 20 69 6e 74 |of the w|orld int|
|00000930| 6f 20 61 0d 0a 73 69 6e | 67 6c 65 2c 20 67 6c 6f |o a..sin|gle, glo|
|00000940| 62 61 6c 20 6d 61 72 6b | 65 74 70 6c 61 63 65 20 |bal mark|etplace |
|00000950| 69 6e 20 77 68 69 63 68 | 20 74 68 65 20 55 2e 53 |in which| the U.S|
|00000960| 2e 20 69 73 20 6a 75 73 | 74 20 6f 6e 65 20 70 6c |. is jus|t one pl|
|00000970| 61 79 65 72 3b 0d 0a 74 | 68 65 20 66 72 69 67 68 |ayer;..t|he frigh|
|00000980| 74 65 6e 69 6e 67 20 64 | 65 63 6c 69 6e 65 20 6f |tening d|ecline o|
|00000990| 66 20 41 6d 65 72 69 63 | 61 6e 20 63 6f 6d 70 65 |f Americ|an compe|
|000009a0| 74 69 74 69 76 65 6e 65 | 73 73 2c 20 77 68 69 63 |titivene|ss, whic|
|000009b0| 68 20 68 61 73 0d 0a 68 | 65 6c 70 65 64 20 74 75 |h has..h|elped tu|
|000009c0| 72 6e 20 74 68 65 20 63 | 6f 75 6e 74 72 79 20 69 |rn the c|ountry i|
|000009d0| 6e 74 6f 20 74 68 65 20 | 77 6f 72 6c 64 27 73 20 |nto the |world's |
|000009e0| 62 69 67 67 65 73 74 20 | 64 65 62 74 6f 72 3b 20 |biggest |debtor; |
|000009f0| 74 68 65 0d 0a 72 75 6e | 61 77 61 79 20 67 72 6f |the..run|away gro|
|00000a00| 77 74 68 20 6f 66 20 55 | 2e 53 2e 20 73 65 72 76 |wth of U|.S. serv|
|00000a10| 69 63 65 20 69 6e 64 75 | 73 74 72 69 65 73 2c 20 |ice indu|stries, |
|00000a20| 77 68 69 63 68 20 68 61 | 73 20 6d 61 64 65 0d 0a |which ha|s made..|
|00000a30| 70 72 6f 64 75 63 74 69 | 76 69 74 79 20 61 6e 64 |producti|vity and|
|00000a40| 20 6f 74 68 65 72 20 69 | 6d 70 6f 72 74 61 6e 74 | other i|mportant|
|00000a50| 20 6d 65 61 73 75 72 65 | 73 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 | measure|s of the|
|00000a60| 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 79 | 0d 0a 69 6e 63 72 65 61 | economy|..increa|
|00000a70| 73 69 6e 67 6c 79 20 73 | 6c 69 70 70 65 72 79 20 |singly s|lippery |
|00000a80| 74 6f 20 63 61 6c 63 75 | 6c 61 74 65 2e 0d 0a 0d |to calcu|late....|
|00000a90| 0a 20 20 20 20 41 20 64 | 69 73 74 75 72 62 69 6e |. A d|isturbin|
|00000aa0| 67 20 73 69 67 6e 20 6f | 66 20 74 68 65 20 6e 65 |g sign o|f the ne|
|00000ab0| 77 20 74 69 6d 65 73 20 | 70 6f 70 70 65 64 20 75 |w times |popped u|
|00000ac0| 70 20 6c 61 73 74 20 77 | 65 65 6b 2c 20 77 68 65 |p last w|eek, whe|
|00000ad0| 6e 0d 0a 74 68 65 20 47 | 6f 76 65 72 6e 6d 65 6e |n..the G|overnmen|
|00000ae0| 74 20 72 65 70 6f 72 74 | 65 64 20 74 68 61 74 20 |t report|ed that |
|00000af0| 74 68 65 20 55 2e 53 2e | 20 74 72 61 64 65 20 64 |the U.S.| trade d|
|00000b00| 65 66 69 63 69 74 20 73 | 75 72 67 65 64 20 69 6e |eficit s|urged in|
|00000b10| 0d 0a 4e 6f 76 65 6d 62 | 65 72 20 74 6f 20 24 31 |..Novemb|er to $1|
|00000b20| 32 2e 35 20 62 69 6c 6c | 69 6f 6e 2c 20 75 70 20 |2.5 bill|ion, up |
|00000b30| 66 72 6f 6d 20 24 31 30 | 2e 33 20 62 69 6c 6c 69 |from $10|.3 billi|
|00000b40| 6f 6e 20 74 68 65 20 70 | 72 65 76 69 6f 75 73 0d |on the p|revious.|
|00000b50| 0a 6d 6f 6e 74 68 2e 20 | 54 68 65 20 73 74 61 6c |.month. |The stal|
|00000b60| 6c 65 64 20 70 72 6f 67 | 72 65 73 73 20 69 6e 20 |led prog|ress in |
|00000b70| 6e 61 72 72 6f 77 69 6e | 67 20 74 68 65 20 74 72 |narrowin|g the tr|
|00000b80| 61 64 65 20 67 61 70 20 | 62 72 69 6e 67 73 0d 0a |ade gap |brings..|
|00000b90| 69 6e 74 6f 20 71 75 65 | 73 74 69 6f 6e 20 61 20 |into que|stion a |
|00000ba0| 63 65 6e 74 72 61 6c 20 | 61 73 73 75 6d 70 74 69 |central |assumpti|
|00000bb0| 6f 6e 20 6f 66 20 55 2e | 53 2e 20 74 72 61 64 65 |on of U.|S. trade|
|00000bc0| 20 73 74 72 61 74 65 67 | 79 3a 20 74 68 61 74 0d | strateg|y: that.|
|00000bd0| 0a 74 68 65 20 77 65 61 | 6b 20 64 6f 6c 6c 61 72 |.the wea|k dollar|
|00000be0| 20 77 69 6c 6c 20 63 6f | 6e 74 69 6e 75 65 20 74 | will co|ntinue t|
|00000bf0| 6f 20 73 68 72 69 6e 6b | 20 74 68 65 20 64 65 66 |o shrink| the def|
|00000c00| 69 63 69 74 20 62 79 20 | 6d 61 6b 69 6e 67 0d 0a |icit by |making..|
|00000c10| 55 2e 53 2e 20 65 78 70 | 6f 72 74 73 20 63 68 65 |U.S. exp|orts che|
|00000c20| 61 70 65 72 20 6f 76 65 | 72 73 65 61 73 20 61 6e |aper ove|rseas an|
|00000c30| 64 20 69 6d 70 6f 72 74 | 65 64 20 67 6f 6f 64 73 |d import|ed goods|
|00000c40| 20 6d 6f 72 65 20 65 78 | 70 65 6e 73 69 76 65 0d | more ex|pensive.|
|00000c50| 0a 66 6f 72 20 41 6d 65 | 72 69 63 61 6e 20 73 68 |.for Ame|rican sh|
|00000c60| 6f 70 70 65 72 73 2e 20 | 42 75 74 20 55 2e 53 2e |oppers. |But U.S.|
|00000c70| 20 69 6d 70 6f 72 74 73 | 20 6a 75 73 74 20 6b 65 | imports| just ke|
|00000c80| 65 70 20 6f 6e 20 72 69 | 73 69 6e 67 2e 0d 0a 54 |ep on ri|sing...T|
|00000c90| 68 61 74 20 70 61 72 74 | 6c 79 20 72 65 66 6c 65 |hat part|ly refle|
|00000ca0| 63 74 73 20 77 68 61 74 | 20 73 6f 6d 65 20 65 63 |cts what| some ec|
|00000cb0| 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 73 74 73 | 20 68 61 76 65 20 62 65 |onomists| have be|
|00000cc0| 67 75 6e 20 74 6f 20 63 | 61 6c 6c 0d 0a 22 68 79 |gun to c|all.."hy|
|00000cd0| 73 74 65 72 65 73 69 73 | 22 20 2d 2d 20 61 20 66 |steresis|" -- a f|
|00000ce0| 61 6e 63 79 20 74 65 72 | 6d 20 66 6f 72 20 74 68 |ancy ter|m for th|
|00000cf0| 65 20 6e 6f 74 69 6f 6e | 20 74 68 61 74 20 6e 65 |e notion| that ne|
|00000d00| 77 20 68 61 62 69 74 73 | 2c 0d 0a 6c 69 6b 65 20 |w habits|,..like |
|00000d10| 6f 6c 64 20 6f 6e 65 73 | 2c 20 61 72 65 20 68 61 |old ones|, are ha|
|00000d20| 72 64 20 74 6f 20 62 72 | 65 61 6b 2e 20 41 6d 65 |rd to br|eak. Ame|
|00000d30| 72 69 63 61 6e 73 20 68 | 61 76 65 20 6c 65 61 72 |ricans h|ave lear|
|00000d40| 6e 65 64 20 74 6f 20 6c | 6f 76 65 0d 0a 4a 61 70 |ned to l|ove..Jap|
|00000d50| 61 6e 65 73 65 20 63 61 | 72 73 2c 20 54 56 73 20 |anese ca|rs, TVs |
|00000d60| 61 6e 64 20 76 69 64 65 | 6f 63 61 73 73 65 74 74 |and vide|ocassett|
|00000d70| 65 20 72 65 63 6f 72 64 | 65 72 73 2c 20 61 6e 64 |e record|ers, and|
|00000d80| 20 61 72 65 0d 0a 72 65 | 6c 75 63 74 61 6e 74 20 | are..re|luctant |
|00000d90| 74 6f 20 67 69 76 65 20 | 74 68 65 6d 20 75 70 2c |to give |them up,|
|00000da0| 20 72 65 67 61 72 64 6c | 65 73 73 20 6f 66 20 70 | regardl|ess of p|
|00000db0| 72 69 63 65 2e 0d 0a 0d | 0a 20 20 20 20 45 76 65 |rice....|. Eve|
|00000dc0| 6e 20 62 65 66 6f 72 65 | 20 74 68 65 20 66 69 67 |n before| the fig|
|00000dd0| 75 72 65 73 20 63 61 6d | 65 20 6f 75 74 2c 20 61 |ures cam|e out, a|
|00000de0| 20 4a 61 70 61 6e 65 73 | 65 20 6f 66 66 69 63 69 | Japanes|e offici|
|00000df0| 61 6c 20 77 61 72 6e 65 | 64 0d 0a 74 68 65 20 55 |al warne|d..the U|
|00000e00| 2e 53 2e 20 61 67 61 69 | 6e 73 74 20 77 65 61 6b |.S. agai|nst weak|
|00000e10| 65 6e 69 6e 67 20 74 68 | 65 20 64 6f 6c 6c 61 72 |ening th|e dollar|
|00000e20| 20 61 73 20 61 20 74 72 | 61 64 65 2d 67 61 70 20 | as a tr|ade-gap |
|00000e30| 72 65 6d 65 64 79 2e 0d | 0a 4d 61 6b 6f 74 6f 20 |remedy..|.Makoto |
|00000e40| 55 74 73 75 6d 69 2c 20 | 61 20 73 65 6e 69 6f 72 |Utsumi, |a senior|
|00000e50| 20 65 78 65 63 75 74 69 | 76 65 20 69 6e 20 74 68 | executi|ve in th|
|00000e60| 65 20 46 69 6e 61 6e 63 | 65 20 4d 69 6e 69 73 74 |e Financ|e Minist|
|00000e70| 72 79 2c 0d 0a 64 65 63 | 6c 61 72 65 64 20 74 68 |ry,..dec|lared th|
|00000e80| 61 74 20 61 20 66 75 72 | 74 68 65 72 20 66 61 6c |at a fur|ther fal|
|00000e90| 6c 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 | 20 64 6f 6c 6c 61 72 20 |l of the| dollar |
|00000ea0| 61 67 61 69 6e 73 74 20 | 74 68 65 20 79 65 6e 20 |against |the yen |
|00000eb0| 77 6f 75 6c 64 0d 0a 6e | 6f 74 20 63 6c 6f 73 65 |would..n|ot close|
|00000ec0| 20 74 68 65 20 74 72 61 | 64 65 20 67 61 70 20 62 | the tra|de gap b|
|00000ed0| 65 63 61 75 73 65 20 4a | 61 70 61 6e 65 73 65 20 |ecause J|apanese |
|00000ee0| 66 69 72 6d 73 20 77 6f | 75 6c 64 20 6c 61 79 20 |firms wo|uld lay |
|00000ef0| 6f 66 66 0d 0a 77 6f 72 | 6b 65 72 73 20 61 6e 64 |off..wor|kers and|
|00000f00| 20 74 61 6b 65 20 6f 74 | 68 65 72 20 73 74 65 70 | take ot|her step|
|00000f10| 73 20 74 6f 20 72 65 6d | 61 69 6e 20 63 6f 6d 70 |s to rem|ain comp|
|00000f20| 65 74 69 74 69 76 65 2e | 20 41 20 63 68 65 61 70 |etitive.| A cheap|
|00000f30| 65 72 0d 0a 64 6f 6c 6c | 61 72 2c 20 73 61 69 64 |er..doll|ar, said|
|00000f40| 20 55 74 73 75 6d 69 2c | 20 77 6f 75 6c 64 20 73 | Utsumi,| would s|
|00000f50| 69 6d 70 6c 79 20 22 6d | 61 6b 65 20 41 6d 65 72 |imply "m|ake Amer|
|00000f60| 69 63 61 20 66 6f 72 20 | 73 61 6c 65 2e 22 0d 0a |ica for |sale."..|
|00000f70| 0d 0a 20 20 20 20 53 74 | 61 6e 66 6f 72 64 20 65 |.. St|anford e|
|00000f80| 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 73 74 | 20 52 6f 6e 61 6c 64 20 |conomist| Ronald |
|00000f90| 4d 63 4b 69 6e 6e 6f 6e | 2c 20 61 6e 20 65 78 70 |McKinnon|, an exp|
|00000fa0| 65 72 74 20 6f 6e 20 66 | 6f 72 65 69 67 6e 0d 0a |ert on f|oreign..|
|00000fb0| 74 72 61 64 65 20 61 6e | 64 20 66 69 6e 61 6e 63 |trade an|d financ|
|00000fc0| 65 2c 20 63 6f 6e 63 75 | 72 72 65 64 20 77 69 74 |e, concu|rred wit|
|00000fd0| 68 20 74 68 61 74 20 76 | 69 65 77 2e 20 22 41 20 |h that v|iew. "A |
|00000fe0| 64 65 63 6c 69 6e 69 6e | 67 0d 0a 64 6f 6c 6c 61 |declinin|g..dolla|
|00000ff0| 72 20 69 73 20 6e 6f 74 | 68 69 6e 67 20 6d 6f 72 |r is not|hing mor|
|00001000| 65 20 74 68 61 6e 20 61 | 20 72 65 66 6c 65 63 74 |e than a| reflect|
|00001010| 69 6f 6e 20 6f 66 20 61 | 6e 20 65 61 73 79 2d 6d |ion of a|n easy-m|
|00001020| 6f 6e 65 79 0d 0a 70 6f | 6c 69 63 79 2c 22 20 73 |oney..po|licy," s|
|00001030| 61 69 64 20 68 65 2c 20 | 61 64 64 69 6e 67 20 74 |aid he, |adding t|
|00001040| 68 61 74 20 74 68 65 20 | 65 78 63 65 73 73 20 6f |hat the |excess o|
|00001050| 66 20 47 6f 76 65 72 6e | 6d 65 6e 74 20 62 6f 72 |f Govern|ment bor|
|00001060| 72 6f 77 69 6e 67 0d 0a | 61 6e 64 20 73 70 65 6e |rowing..|and spen|
|00001070| 64 69 6e 67 20 69 6e 63 | 72 65 61 73 65 73 20 55 |ding inc|reases U|
|00001080| 2e 53 2e 20 64 65 6d 61 | 6e 64 20 66 6f 72 20 69 |.S. dema|nd for i|
|00001090| 6d 70 6f 72 74 65 64 20 | 67 6f 6f 64 73 2e 20 41 |mported |goods. A|
|000010a0| 74 20 74 68 65 0d 0a 73 | 61 6d 65 20 74 69 6d 65 |t the..s|ame time|
|000010b0| 2c 20 63 75 72 72 65 6e | 63 69 65 73 20 74 68 61 |, curren|cies tha|
|000010c0| 74 20 61 72 65 20 73 74 | 72 6f 6e 67 20 69 6e 20 |t are st|rong in |
|000010d0| 72 65 6c 61 74 69 6f 6e | 20 74 6f 20 74 68 65 20 |relation| to the |
|000010e0| 64 6f 6c 6c 61 72 0d 0a | 68 61 76 65 20 6d 61 64 |dollar..|have mad|
|000010f0| 65 20 41 6d 65 72 69 63 | 61 6e 20 66 61 72 6d 73 |e Americ|an farms|
|00001100| 2c 20 66 61 63 74 6f 72 | 69 65 73 20 61 6e 64 20 |, factor|ies and |
|00001110| 72 65 61 6c 20 65 73 74 | 61 74 65 20 74 65 6d 70 |real est|ate temp|
|00001120| 74 69 6e 67 20 74 6f 0d | 0a 66 6f 72 65 69 67 6e |ting to.|.foreign|
|00001130| 20 62 75 79 65 72 73 2c | 20 73 61 79 73 20 4d 63 | buyers,| says Mc|
|00001140| 4b 69 6e 6e 6f 6e 2c 20 | 22 73 6f 20 77 65 20 63 |Kinnon, |"so we c|
|00001150| 6f 6e 64 75 63 74 20 73 | 6f 6d 65 74 68 69 6e 67 |onduct s|omething|
|00001160| 20 6f 66 20 61 0d 0a 66 | 69 72 65 20 73 61 6c 65 | of a..f|ire sale|
|00001170| 22 20 74 6f 20 70 61 79 | 20 66 6f 72 20 69 6d 70 |" to pay| for imp|
|00001180| 6f 72 74 65 64 20 6d 65 | 72 63 68 61 6e 64 69 73 |orted me|rchandis|
|00001190| 65 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 20 | 20 20 4f 6e 20 57 61 6c |e..... | On Wal|
|000011a0| 6c 20 53 74 72 65 65 74 | 20 6f 6e 65 20 6e 65 77 |l Street| one new|
|000011b0| 20 62 72 65 65 64 20 6f | 66 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d | breed o|f econom|
|000011c0| 69 73 74 73 20 6c 6f 6f | 6b 73 20 61 74 20 74 68 |ists loo|ks at th|
|000011d0| 65 20 73 61 6d 65 0d 0a | 75 6e 65 78 70 65 63 74 |e same..|unexpect|
|000011e0| 65 64 20 65 76 65 6e 74 | 73 20 61 6e 64 20 63 6f |ed event|s and co|
|000011f0| 6d 65 73 20 75 70 20 77 | 69 74 68 20 61 20 72 6f |mes up w|ith a ro|
|00001200| 73 69 65 72 20 6f 75 74 | 6c 6f 6f 6b 20 6f 6e 20 |sier out|look on |
|00001210| 68 6f 77 20 74 68 65 0d | 0a 77 6f 72 6c 64 20 77 |how the.|.world w|
|00001220| 6f 72 6b 73 2e 20 49 6e | 20 74 68 69 73 20 76 69 |orks. In| this vi|
|00001230| 65 77 2c 20 74 68 65 20 | 55 2e 53 2e 20 68 61 73 |ew, the |U.S. has|
|00001240| 20 65 6e 74 65 72 65 64 | 20 61 6e 20 65 72 61 20 | entered| an era |
|00001250| 6f 66 0d 0a 70 72 6f 73 | 70 65 72 69 74 79 20 63 |of..pros|perity c|
|00001260| 61 6c 6c 65 64 20 74 68 | 65 20 4e 65 77 20 57 61 |alled th|e New Wa|
|00001270| 76 65 2e 20 22 57 65 20 | 61 72 65 20 69 6e 20 6f |ve. "We |are in o|
|00001280| 6e 65 20 6f 66 20 74 68 | 65 20 6d 6f 73 74 0d 0a |ne of th|e most..|
|00001290| 72 65 76 6f 6c 75 74 69 | 6f 6e 61 72 79 20 70 65 |revoluti|onary pe|
|000012a0| 72 69 6f 64 73 20 69 6e | 20 6f 75 72 20 68 69 73 |riods in| our his|
|000012b0| 74 6f 72 79 2c 22 20 73 | 61 79 73 20 53 61 6d 20 |tory," s|ays Sam |
|000012c0| 4e 61 6b 61 67 61 6d 61 | 2c 0d 0a 63 68 61 69 72 |Nakagama|,..chair|
|000012d0| 6d 61 6e 20 6f 66 20 4e | 61 6b 61 67 61 6d 61 20 |man of N|akagama |
|000012e0| 26 20 57 61 6c 6c 61 63 | 65 2c 20 61 6e 20 65 63 |& Wallac|e, an ec|
|000012f0| 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 63 20 63 | 6f 6e 73 75 6c 74 69 6e |onomic c|onsultin|
|00001300| 67 20 66 69 72 6d 20 69 | 6e 0d 0a 4d 61 6e 68 61 |g firm i|n..Manha|
|00001310| 74 74 61 6e 2e 20 4e 61 | 6b 61 67 61 6d 61 20 61 |ttan. Na|kagama a|
|00001320| 6e 64 20 6f 74 68 65 72 | 20 4e 65 77 20 57 61 76 |nd other| New Wav|
|00001330| 65 20 61 64 76 6f 63 61 | 74 65 73 20 20 73 61 79 |e advoca|tes say|
|00001340| 20 74 68 65 0d 0a 72 65 | 63 6f 72 64 20 65 78 70 | the..re|cord exp|
|00001350| 61 6e 73 69 6f 6e 20 6f | 77 65 73 20 69 74 73 20 |ansion o|wes its |
|00001360| 73 74 72 65 6e 67 74 68 | 20 61 6e 64 20 72 65 73 |strength| and res|
|00001370| 69 6c 69 65 6e 63 65 20 | 74 6f 20 74 68 65 0d 0a |ilience |to the..|
|00001380| 6f 70 65 6e 6e 65 73 73 | 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 |openness| of the |
|00001390| 55 2e 53 2e 20 65 63 6f | 6e 6f 6d 79 20 64 75 72 |U.S. eco|nomy dur|
|000013a0| 69 6e 67 20 74 68 65 20 | 70 61 73 74 20 64 65 63 |ing the |past dec|
|000013b0| 61 64 65 2e 20 57 69 74 | 68 20 74 68 65 0d 0a 67 |ade. Wit|h the..g|
|000013c0| 6c 6f 62 61 6c 20 76 69 | 6c 6c 61 67 65 20 6c 69 |lobal vi|llage li|
|000013d0| 6e 6b 65 64 20 62 79 20 | 68 69 67 68 2d 73 70 65 |nked by |high-spe|
|000013e0| 65 64 20 63 6f 6d 70 75 | 74 65 72 73 20 61 6e 64 |ed compu|ters and|
|000013f0| 20 63 6f 6d 6d 75 6e 69 | 63 61 74 69 6f 6e 73 0d | communi|cations.|
|00001400| 0a 73 61 74 65 6c 6c 69 | 74 65 73 2c 20 74 68 65 |.satelli|tes, the|
|00001410| 79 20 61 72 67 75 65 2c | 20 55 2e 53 2e 20 65 78 |y argue,| U.S. ex|
|00001420| 65 63 75 74 69 76 65 73 | 20 65 61 73 69 6c 79 20 |ecutives| easily |
|00001430| 68 75 72 64 6c 65 20 6f | 62 73 74 61 63 6c 65 73 |hurdle o|bstacles|
|00001440| 0d 0a 6c 69 6b 65 20 72 | 69 73 69 6e 67 20 64 6f |..like r|ising do|
|00001450| 6d 65 73 74 69 63 20 69 | 6e 74 65 72 65 73 74 20 |mestic i|nterest |
|00001460| 72 61 74 65 73 20 62 79 | 20 62 6f 72 72 6f 77 69 |rates by| borrowi|
|00001470| 6e 67 20 66 72 6f 6d 20 | 6f 74 68 65 72 0d 0a 63 |ng from |other..c|
|00001480| 6f 75 6e 74 72 69 65 73 | 2e 20 49 6e 20 74 68 65 |ountries|. In the|
|00001490| 20 73 61 6d 65 20 77 61 | 79 2c 20 41 6d 65 72 69 | same wa|y, Ameri|
|000014a0| 63 61 6e 20 6d 61 6e 75 | 66 61 63 74 75 72 65 72 |can manu|facturer|
|000014b0| 73 20 63 61 6e 20 65 73 | 63 61 70 65 0d 0a 68 69 |s can es|cape..hi|
|000014c0| 67 68 20 6c 61 62 6f 72 | 20 63 6f 73 74 73 20 62 |gh labor| costs b|
|000014d0| 79 20 6f 70 65 6e 69 6e | 67 20 66 61 63 74 6f 72 |y openin|g factor|
|000014e0| 69 65 73 20 61 62 72 6f | 61 64 20 74 6f 20 61 64 |ies abro|ad to ad|
|000014f0| 64 20 6e 65 77 0d 0a 63 | 61 70 61 63 69 74 79 2e |d new..c|apacity.|
|00001500| 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 20 20 20 | 4e 65 77 20 57 61 76 65 |.... |New Wave|
|00001510| 72 73 20 69 6e 73 69 73 | 74 20 74 68 61 74 20 74 |rs insis|t that t|
|00001520| 68 69 73 20 66 6c 65 78 | 69 62 69 6c 69 74 79 20 |his flex|ibility |
|00001530| 68 61 73 20 61 6c 6c 20 | 62 75 74 0d 0a 61 62 6f |has all |but..abo|
|00001540| 6c 69 73 68 65 64 20 74 | 68 65 20 74 72 61 64 69 |lished t|he tradi|
|00001550| 74 69 6f 6e 61 6c 20 62 | 75 73 69 6e 65 73 73 20 |tional b|usiness |
|00001560| 63 79 63 6c 65 2e 20 57 | 68 69 6c 65 20 74 68 65 |cycle. W|hile the|
|00001570| 79 0d 0a 61 63 6b 6e 6f | 77 6c 65 64 67 65 20 74 |y..ackno|wledge t|
|00001580| 68 61 74 20 73 6c 75 6d | 70 73 20 63 61 6e 20 73 |hat slum|ps can s|
|00001590| 74 69 6c 6c 20 73 74 72 | 69 6b 65 20 63 65 72 74 |till str|ike cert|
|000015a0| 61 69 6e 20 77 65 61 6b | 0d 0a 69 6e 64 75 73 74 |ain weak|..indust|
|000015b0| 72 69 65 73 2c 20 74 68 | 65 79 20 72 65 67 61 72 |ries, th|ey regar|
|000015c0| 64 20 62 72 6f 61 64 20 | 64 6f 77 6e 74 75 72 6e |d broad |downturn|
|000015d0| 73 20 61 73 20 6c 61 72 | 67 65 6c 79 20 61 20 74 |s as lar|gely a t|
|000015e0| 68 69 6e 67 20 6f 66 0d | 0a 74 68 65 20 70 61 73 |hing of.|.the pas|
|000015f0| 74 2e 20 53 61 79 73 20 | 45 64 77 61 72 64 20 59 |t. Says |Edward Y|
|00001600| 61 72 64 65 6e 69 2c 20 | 63 68 69 65 66 20 65 63 |ardeni, |chief ec|
|00001610| 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 73 74 20 | 66 6f 72 0d 0a 50 72 75 |onomist |for..Pru|
|00001620| 64 65 6e 74 69 61 6c 2d | 42 61 63 68 65 20 53 65 |dential-|Bache Se|
|00001630| 63 75 72 69 74 69 65 73 | 3a 20 22 54 68 65 20 65 |curities|: "The e|
|00001640| 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 79 20 69 | 73 20 6e 6f 77 20 73 6f |conomy i|s now so|
|00001650| 20 68 75 67 65 2c 20 73 | 6f 0d 0a 64 69 76 65 72 | huge, s|o..diver|
|00001660| 73 65 20 61 6e 64 20 72 | 65 73 69 6c 69 65 6e 74 |se and r|esilient|
|00001670| 20 74 68 61 74 20 61 64 | 6a 75 73 74 6d 65 6e 74 | that ad|justment|
|00001680| 73 20 74 61 6b 65 20 70 | 6c 61 63 65 20 74 68 61 |s take p|lace tha|
|00001690| 74 20 70 72 65 76 65 6e | 74 0d 0a 65 63 6f 6e 6f |t preven|t..econo|
|000016a0| 6d 79 2d 77 69 64 65 20 | 72 65 63 65 73 73 69 6f |my-wide |recessio|
|000016b0| 6e 73 2e 22 0d 0a 0d 0a | 20 20 20 20 53 75 63 68 |ns."....| Such|
|000016c0| 20 6e 65 77 20 73 63 65 | 6e 61 72 69 6f 73 20 68 | new sce|narios h|
|000016d0| 61 76 65 20 61 72 69 73 | 65 6e 20 6c 61 72 67 65 |ave aris|en large|
|000016e0| 6c 79 20 62 65 63 61 75 | 73 65 20 72 65 61 6c 20 |ly becau|se real |
|000016f0| 65 76 65 6e 74 73 0d 0a | 73 6f 20 6f 66 74 65 6e |events..|so often|
|00001700| 20 63 6f 6e 66 6f 75 6e | 64 65 64 20 74 68 65 20 | confoun|ded the |
|00001710| 6f 6c 64 20 6f 6e 65 73 | 2e 20 53 75 70 70 6c 79 |old ones|. Supply|
|00001720| 2d 73 69 64 65 72 73 2c | 20 66 6f 72 20 69 6e 73 |-siders,| for ins|
|00001730| 74 61 6e 63 65 2c 0d 0a | 62 6f 61 73 74 65 64 20 |tance,..|boasted |
|00001740| 74 68 61 74 20 74 68 65 | 69 72 20 70 6f 6c 69 63 |that the|ir polic|
|00001750| 69 65 73 20 77 6f 75 6c | 64 20 62 6f 6f 73 74 20 |ies woul|d boost |
|00001760| 74 68 65 20 55 2e 53 2e | 20 73 61 76 69 6e 67 73 |the U.S.| savings|
|00001770| 20 72 61 74 65 0d 0a 61 | 6e 64 20 6d 61 6b 65 20 | rate..a|nd make |
|00001780| 41 6d 65 72 69 63 61 6e | 73 20 6d 6f 72 65 20 70 |American|s more p|
|00001790| 72 6f 64 75 63 74 69 76 | 65 2e 20 42 75 74 2c 20 |roductiv|e. But, |
|000017a0| 6c 69 6b 65 20 74 68 65 | 20 73 75 70 70 6c 79 2d |like the| supply-|
|000017b0| 73 69 64 65 0d 0a 66 6f | 72 65 63 61 73 74 73 20 |side..fo|recasts |
|000017c0| 6f 66 20 73 6d 61 6c 6c | 65 72 20 64 65 66 69 63 |of small|er defic|
|000017d0| 69 74 73 2c 20 62 6f 74 | 68 20 70 72 6f 6d 69 73 |its, bot|h promis|
|000017e0| 65 73 20 66 61 69 6c 65 | 64 20 74 6f 20 63 6f 6d |es faile|d to com|
|000017f0| 65 0d 0a 74 72 75 65 2e | 20 54 68 65 20 70 65 72 |e..true.| The per|
|00001800| 73 6f 6e 61 6c 20 73 61 | 76 69 6e 67 73 20 72 61 |sonal sa|vings ra|
|00001810| 74 65 20 66 65 6c 6c 20 | 66 72 6f 6d 20 37 2e 31 |te fell |from 7.1|
|00001820| 25 20 69 6e 20 31 39 38 | 30 20 74 6f 20 61 62 6f |% in 198|0 to abo|
|00001830| 75 74 0d 0a 34 25 20 6c | 61 73 74 20 79 65 61 72 |ut..4% l|ast year|
|00001840| 2e 20 41 74 20 74 68 65 | 20 73 61 6d 65 20 74 69 |. At the| same ti|
|00001850| 6d 65 2c 20 74 68 65 20 | 67 72 6f 77 74 68 20 6f |me, the |growth o|
|00001860| 66 20 62 75 73 69 6e 65 | 73 73 0d 0a 70 72 6f 64 |f busine|ss..prod|
|00001870| 75 63 74 69 76 69 74 79 | 2c 20 6f 72 20 6f 75 74 |uctivity|, or out|
|00001880| 70 75 74 20 70 65 72 20 | 68 6f 75 72 2c 20 61 76 |put per |hour, av|
|00001890| 65 72 61 67 65 64 20 61 | 20 6d 65 61 67 65 72 20 |eraged a| meager |
|000018a0| 31 2e 34 25 20 66 72 6f | 6d 0d 0a 31 39 38 30 20 |1.4% fro|m..1980 |
|000018b0| 74 6f 20 31 39 38 37 2c | 20 68 61 6c 66 20 74 68 |to 1987,| half th|
|000018c0| 65 20 72 61 74 65 20 6f | 66 20 74 68 65 20 31 39 |e rate o|f the 19|
|000018d0| 36 30 73 2e 20 52 65 61 | 73 6f 6e 3a 20 74 68 65 |60s. Rea|son: the|
|000018e0| 20 73 61 76 69 6e 67 73 | 0d 0a 64 65 63 6c 69 6e | savings|..declin|
|000018f0| 65 20 73 6c 6f 77 65 64 | 20 69 6e 76 65 73 74 6d |e slowed| investm|
|00001900| 65 6e 74 73 20 69 6e 20 | 70 72 6f 64 75 63 74 69 |ents in |producti|
|00001910| 76 65 20 6e 65 77 20 65 | 71 75 69 70 6d 65 6e 74 |ve new e|quipment|
|00001920| 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 20 20 | 20 52 65 61 67 61 6e 27 |..... | Reagan'|
|00001930| 73 20 70 72 6f 75 64 65 | 73 74 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f |s proude|st econo|
|00001940| 6d 69 63 20 61 63 68 69 | 65 76 65 6d 65 6e 74 2c |mic achi|evement,|
|00001950| 20 74 61 6d 69 6e 67 20 | 74 68 65 20 69 6e 66 6c | taming |the infl|
|00001960| 61 74 69 6f 6e 0d 0a 72 | 61 74 65 20 66 72 6f 6d |ation..r|ate from|
|00001970| 20 31 32 2e 35 25 20 69 | 6e 20 31 39 38 30 20 74 | 12.5% i|n 1980 t|
|00001980| 6f 20 34 2e 34 25 20 6c | 61 73 74 20 79 65 61 72 |o 4.4% l|ast year|
|00001990| 2c 20 68 61 73 20 61 6c | 73 6f 20 64 65 61 6c 74 |, has al|so dealt|
|000019a0| 20 61 20 62 6c 6f 77 0d | 0a 74 6f 20 73 6f 6d 65 | a blow.|.to some|
|000019b0| 20 6d 61 6a 6f 72 20 73 | 63 68 6f 6f 6c 73 20 6f | major s|chools o|
|000019c0| 66 20 74 68 6f 75 67 68 | 74 2e 20 4d 6f 6e 65 74 |f though|t. Monet|
|000019d0| 61 72 69 73 74 73 20 6c | 69 6b 65 20 4e 6f 62 65 |arists l|ike Nobe|
|000019e0| 6c 0d 0a 6c 61 75 72 65 | 61 74 65 20 4d 69 6c 74 |l..laure|ate Milt|
|000019f0| 6f 6e 20 46 72 69 65 64 | 6d 61 6e 2c 20 77 68 6f |on Fried|man, who|
|00001a00| 20 62 65 6c 69 65 76 65 | 20 74 68 61 74 20 73 6c | believe| that sl|
|00001a10| 6f 77 20 61 6e 64 20 73 | 74 65 61 64 79 0d 0a 67 |ow and s|teady..g|
|00001a20| 72 6f 77 74 68 20 6f 66 | 20 74 68 65 20 6d 6f 6e |rowth of| the mon|
|00001a30| 65 79 20 73 75 70 70 6c | 79 20 69 73 20 74 68 65 |ey suppl|y is the|
|00001a40| 20 6b 65 79 20 74 6f 20 | 70 72 6f 73 70 65 72 69 | key to |prosperi|
|00001a50| 74 79 2c 20 65 78 70 65 | 63 74 65 64 0d 0a 69 6e |ty, expe|cted..in|
|00001a60| 66 6c 61 74 69 6f 6e 20 | 74 6f 20 73 68 6f 6f 74 |flation |to shoot|
|00001a70| 20 75 70 20 77 68 65 6e | 20 74 68 65 20 46 65 64 | up when| the Fed|
|00001a80| 65 72 61 6c 20 52 65 73 | 65 72 76 65 20 73 75 64 |eral Res|erve sud|
|00001a90| 64 65 6e 6c 79 20 70 75 | 6d 70 65 64 0d 0a 63 61 |denly pu|mped..ca|
|00001aa0| 73 68 20 69 6e 74 6f 20 | 74 68 65 20 65 63 6f 6e |sh into |the econ|
|00001ab0| 6f 6d 79 20 74 6f 20 68 | 61 6c 74 20 74 68 65 20 |omy to h|alt the |
|00001ac0| 72 65 63 65 73 73 69 6f | 6e 20 6f 66 20 31 39 38 |recessio|n of 198|
|00001ad0| 31 2d 38 32 2e 20 42 75 | 74 0d 0a 69 6e 66 6c 61 |1-82. Bu|t..infla|
|00001ae0| 74 69 6f 6e 20 66 61 69 | 6c 65 64 20 74 6f 20 69 |tion fai|led to i|
|00001af0| 67 6e 69 74 65 20 62 65 | 63 61 75 73 65 20 74 68 |gnite be|cause th|
|00001b00| 65 20 73 6c 75 6d 70 20 | 77 61 73 20 73 6f 20 64 |e slump |was so d|
|00001b10| 65 65 70 20 74 68 61 74 | 20 69 74 0d 0a 6c 65 66 |eep that| it..lef|
|00001b20| 74 20 74 68 65 20 65 63 | 6f 6e 6f 6d 79 20 77 69 |t the ec|onomy wi|
|00001b30| 74 68 20 70 6c 65 6e 74 | 79 20 6f 66 20 72 6f 6f |th plent|y of roo|
|00001b40| 6d 20 74 6f 20 67 72 6f | 77 20 77 69 74 68 6f 75 |m to gro|w withou|
|00001b50| 74 20 70 75 73 68 69 6e | 67 20 75 70 0d 0a 70 72 |t pushin|g up..pr|
|00001b60| 69 63 65 73 2e 0d 0a 0d | 0a 20 20 20 20 4d 65 6d |ices....|. Mem|
|00001b70| 62 65 72 73 20 6f 66 20 | 74 68 65 20 72 61 74 69 |bers of |the rati|
|00001b80| 6f 6e 61 6c 2d 65 78 70 | 65 63 74 61 74 69 6f 6e |onal-exp|ectation|
|00001b90| 73 20 73 63 68 6f 6f 6c | 2c 20 77 68 69 63 68 20 |s school|, which |
|00001ba0| 68 6f 6c 64 73 0d 0a 74 | 68 61 74 20 70 65 6f 70 |holds..t|hat peop|
|00001bb0| 6c 65 20 6b 65 65 70 20 | 61 20 73 68 61 72 70 20 |le keep |a sharp |
|00001bc0| 65 79 65 20 6f 6e 20 67 | 6f 76 65 72 6e 6d 65 6e |eye on g|overnmen|
|00001bd0| 74 20 70 6f 6c 69 63 69 | 65 73 20 61 6e 64 20 74 |t polici|es and t|
|00001be0| 68 65 6e 20 61 63 74 0d | 0a 61 63 63 6f 72 64 69 |hen act.|.accordi|
|00001bf0| 6e 67 6c 79 2c 20 77 65 | 72 65 20 61 6c 73 6f 20 |ngly, we|re also |
|00001c00| 63 61 75 67 68 74 20 73 | 68 6f 72 74 20 62 79 20 |caught s|hort by |
|00001c10| 69 6e 66 6c 61 74 69 6f | 6e 27 73 20 66 61 6c 6c |inflatio|n's fall|
|00001c20| 2e 20 22 49 66 20 79 6f | 75 0d 0a 68 61 64 20 6c |. "If yo|u..had l|
|00001c30| 69 73 74 65 6e 65 64 20 | 74 6f 20 6d 65 20 65 69 |istened |to me ei|
|00001c40| 67 68 74 20 79 65 61 72 | 73 20 61 67 6f 2c 22 20 |ght year|s ago," |
|00001c50| 73 61 79 73 20 55 6e 69 | 76 65 72 73 69 74 79 20 |says Uni|versity |
|00001c60| 6f 66 20 43 68 69 63 61 | 67 6f 0d 0a 65 63 6f 6e |of Chica|go..econ|
|00001c70| 6f 6d 69 73 74 20 52 6f | 62 65 72 74 20 4c 75 63 |omist Ro|bert Luc|
|00001c80| 61 73 2c 20 22 49 20 77 | 6f 75 6c 64 20 68 61 76 |as, "I w|ould hav|
|00001c90| 65 20 70 72 65 64 69 63 | 74 65 64 20 61 6e 20 69 |e predic|ted an i|
|00001ca0| 6e 66 6c 61 74 69 6f 6e | 0d 0a 72 61 74 65 20 6f |nflation|..rate o|
|00001cb0| 66 20 32 35 25 20 77 69 | 74 68 20 74 68 65 73 65 |f 25% wi|th these|
|00001cc0| 20 64 65 66 69 63 69 74 | 73 2e 22 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 | deficit|s.".... |
|00001cd0| 20 20 20 45 63 6f 6e 6f | 6d 69 73 74 73 20 77 6f | Econo|mists wo|
|00001ce0| 75 6c 64 20 68 61 76 65 | 20 62 65 65 6e 20 6c 65 |uld have| been le|
|00001cf0| 73 73 20 73 75 72 70 72 | 69 73 65 64 20 69 66 20 |ss surpr|ised if |
|00001d00| 74 68 65 79 20 68 61 64 | 20 70 61 69 64 0d 0a 6d |they had| paid..m|
|00001d10| 6f 72 65 20 63 61 72 65 | 66 75 6c 20 61 74 74 65 |ore care|ful atte|
|00001d20| 6e 74 69 6f 6e 20 74 6f | 20 63 68 61 6e 67 65 73 |ntion to| changes|
|00001d30| 20 69 6e 20 74 68 65 20 | 55 2e 53 2e 20 61 6e 64 | in the |U.S. and|
|00001d40| 20 77 6f 72 6c 64 0d 0a | 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 65 | world..|economie|
|00001d50| 73 2e 20 20 54 68 65 20 | 64 65 72 65 67 75 6c 61 |s. The |deregula|
|00001d60| 74 69 6f 6e 20 6f 66 20 | 66 6f 72 65 69 67 6e 20 |tion of |foreign |
|00001d70| 63 61 70 69 74 61 6c 20 | 6d 61 72 6b 65 74 73 20 |capital |markets |
|00001d80| 69 6e 20 74 68 65 0d 0a | 6c 61 74 65 20 31 39 37 |in the..|late 197|
|00001d90| 30 73 20 61 6e 64 20 65 | 61 72 6c 79 20 31 39 38 |0s and e|arly 198|
|00001da0| 30 73 20 65 6e 61 62 6c | 65 64 20 74 68 65 20 55 |0s enabl|ed the U|
|00001db0| 2e 53 2e 20 74 6f 20 67 | 6f 20 6f 6e 20 61 20 67 |.S. to g|o on a g|
|00001dc0| 6c 6f 62 61 6c 0d 0a 62 | 6f 72 72 6f 77 69 6e 67 |lobal..b|orrowing|
|00001dd0| 20 62 69 6e 67 65 20 74 | 68 61 74 20 63 6f 75 6e | binge t|hat coun|
|00001de0| 74 65 72 61 63 74 65 64 | 20 74 68 65 20 65 66 66 |teracted| the eff|
|00001df0| 65 63 74 73 20 6f 66 20 | 74 68 65 20 64 65 66 69 |ects of |the defi|
|00001e00| 63 69 74 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a | 20 20 20 20 22 54 65 6e |cit.....| "Ten|
|00001e10| 20 79 65 61 72 73 20 61 | 67 6f 2c 20 74 68 65 72 | years a|go, ther|
|00001e20| 65 20 77 65 72 65 6e 27 | 74 20 74 68 61 74 20 6d |e weren'|t that m|
|00001e30| 61 6e 79 20 70 65 6f 70 | 6c 65 20 77 65 20 63 6f |any peop|le we co|
|00001e40| 75 6c 64 0d 0a 62 6f 72 | 72 6f 77 20 6d 6f 6e 65 |uld..bor|row mone|
|00001e50| 79 20 66 72 6f 6d 2c 22 | 20 6e 6f 74 65 73 20 48 |y from,"| notes H|
|00001e60| 61 72 76 61 72 64 27 73 | 20 4a 65 66 66 72 65 79 |arvard's| Jeffrey|
|00001e70| 20 53 61 63 68 73 2c 20 | 61 20 6c 65 61 64 69 6e | Sachs, |a leadin|
|00001e80| 67 0d 0a 69 6e 74 65 72 | 6e 61 74 69 6f 6e 61 6c |g..inter|national|
|00001e90| 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 | 73 74 2e 20 22 57 65 20 | economi|st. "We |
|00001ea0| 77 65 72 65 20 72 65 6c | 75 63 74 61 6e 74 20 74 |were rel|uctant t|
|00001eb0| 6f 20 72 75 6e 20 64 65 | 66 69 63 69 74 73 20 6f |o run de|ficits o|
|00001ec0| 75 74 0d 0a 6f 66 20 66 | 65 61 72 20 6f 66 20 63 |ut..of f|ear of c|
|00001ed0| 72 65 61 74 69 6e 67 20 | 73 6b 79 2d 68 69 67 68 |reating |sky-high|
|00001ee0| 20 69 6e 66 6c 61 74 69 | 6f 6e 2e 20 4e 6f 77 20 | inflati|on. Now |
|00001ef0| 74 68 65 72 65 20 69 73 | 20 61 20 67 6c 6f 62 61 |there is| a globa|
|00001f00| 6c 0d 0a 62 61 6e 6b 2d | 74 65 6c 6c 65 72 20 77 |l..bank-|teller w|
|00001f10| 69 6e 64 6f 77 20 74 68 | 61 74 20 69 73 20 6f 70 |indow th|at is op|
|00001f20| 65 6e 20 32 34 20 68 6f | 75 72 73 20 61 20 64 61 |en 24 ho|urs a da|
|00001f30| 79 2c 20 61 6e 64 20 77 | 65 27 76 65 20 62 65 65 |y, and w|e've bee|
|00001f40| 6e 0d 0a 6f 6e 65 20 6f | 66 20 74 68 65 20 6d 6f |n..one o|f the mo|
|00001f50| 73 74 20 66 72 65 71 75 | 65 6e 74 20 63 75 73 74 |st frequ|ent cust|
|00001f60| 6f 6d 65 72 73 2e 22 20 | 53 61 63 68 73 20 77 61 |omers." |Sachs wa|
|00001f70| 72 6e 73 2c 20 68 6f 77 | 65 76 65 72 2c 20 74 68 |rns, how|ever, th|
|00001f80| 61 74 0d 0a 74 68 65 20 | 62 65 6e 64 65 72 20 63 |at..the |bender c|
|00001f90| 61 6e 6e 6f 74 20 6c 61 | 73 74 2e 20 22 57 65 27 |annot la|st. "We'|
|00001fa0| 72 65 20 66 61 6b 69 6e | 67 20 69 74 2c 22 20 68 |re fakin|g it," h|
|00001fb0| 65 20 73 61 79 73 2e 20 | 22 4f 75 72 20 6c 69 76 |e says. |"Our liv|
|00001fc0| 69 6e 67 0d 0a 73 74 61 | 6e 64 61 72 64 20 69 73 |ing..sta|ndard is|
|00001fd0| 6e 27 74 20 62 65 69 6e | 67 20 6d 61 69 6e 74 61 |n't bein|g mainta|
|00001fe0| 69 6e 65 64 20 62 79 20 | 68 69 67 68 65 72 20 70 |ined by |higher p|
|00001ff0| 72 6f 64 75 63 74 69 76 | 69 74 79 20 6f 72 0d 0a |roductiv|ity or..|
|00002000| 77 61 67 65 73 2e 20 49 | 74 27 73 20 6d 61 69 6e |wages. I|t's main|
|00002010| 74 61 69 6e 65 64 20 62 | 79 20 66 6f 72 65 69 67 |tained b|y foreig|
|00002020| 6e 20 63 61 70 69 74 61 | 6c 2e 22 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 |n capita|l.".... |
|00002030| 20 20 20 54 68 61 74 20 | 63 6f 6e 63 65 72 6e 20 | That |concern |
|00002040| 69 73 20 65 63 68 6f 65 | 64 20 62 79 20 72 65 73 |is echoe|d by res|
|00002050| 75 72 67 65 6e 74 20 4b | 65 79 6e 65 73 69 61 6e |urgent K|eynesian|
|00002060| 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 | 73 74 73 2c 0d 0a 77 68 | economi|sts,..wh|
|00002070| 6f 20 61 72 65 20 74 72 | 79 69 6e 67 20 74 6f 20 |o are tr|ying to |
|00002080| 61 64 61 70 74 20 74 68 | 65 69 72 20 6d 6f 73 74 |adapt th|eir most|
|00002090| 6c 79 20 6c 69 62 65 72 | 61 6c 20 76 69 65 77 73 |ly liber|al views|
|000020a0| 20 74 6f 20 63 75 72 72 | 65 6e 74 0d 0a 63 6f 6e | to curr|ent..con|
|000020b0| 64 69 74 69 6f 6e 73 2e | 20 56 69 72 74 75 61 6c |ditions.| Virtual|
|000020c0| 6c 79 20 63 6f 75 6e 74 | 65 64 20 6f 75 74 20 77 |ly count|ed out w|
|000020d0| 68 65 6e 20 69 6e 66 6c | 61 74 69 6f 6e 20 73 75 |hen infl|ation su|
|000020e0| 72 67 65 64 20 61 6c 6f | 6e 67 0d 0a 77 69 74 68 |rged alo|ng..with|
|000020f0| 20 75 6e 65 6d 70 6c 6f | 79 6d 65 6e 74 20 69 6e | unemplo|yment in|
|00002100| 20 74 68 65 20 31 39 37 | 30 73 2c 20 74 68 65 20 | the 197|0s, the |
|00002110| 4b 65 79 6e 65 73 69 61 | 6e 73 20 6e 6f 77 20 70 |Keynesia|ns now p|
|00002120| 6f 69 6e 74 20 6f 75 74 | 0d 0a 74 68 61 74 20 52 |oint out|..that R|
|00002130| 65 61 67 61 6e 20 62 6f | 72 72 6f 77 65 64 20 66 |eagan bo|rrowed f|
|00002140| 72 6f 6d 20 74 68 65 69 | 72 20 70 68 69 6c 6f 73 |rom thei|r philos|
|00002150| 6f 70 68 79 20 69 6e 20 | 70 72 6f 70 65 6c 6c 69 |ophy in |propelli|
|00002160| 6e 67 20 68 69 73 0d 0a | 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 63 |ng his..|economic|
|00002170| 20 62 6f 6f 6d 20 77 69 | 74 68 20 64 65 66 69 63 | boom wi|th defic|
|00002180| 69 74 20 73 70 65 6e 64 | 69 6e 67 2c 20 77 68 69 |it spend|ing, whi|
|00002190| 63 68 20 4b 65 79 6e 65 | 73 69 61 6e 73 20 68 61 |ch Keyne|sians ha|
|000021a0| 76 65 20 6c 6f 6e 67 0d | 0a 61 64 76 6f 63 61 74 |ve long.|.advocat|
|000021b0| 65 64 20 61 73 20 61 20 | 63 75 72 65 20 66 6f 72 |ed as a |cure for|
|000021c0| 20 73 6c 75 6d 70 73 2e | 20 22 4b 65 79 6e 65 73 | slumps.| "Keynes|
|000021d0| 69 61 6e 69 73 6d 20 77 | 61 73 20 76 69 6e 64 69 |ianism w|as vindi|
|000021e0| 63 61 74 65 64 20 62 79 | 0d 0a 74 68 65 73 65 20 |cated by|..these |
|000021f0| 6c 61 73 74 20 65 69 67 | 68 74 20 79 65 61 72 73 |last eig|ht years|
|00002200| 2c 22 20 73 61 79 73 20 | 50 72 69 6e 63 65 74 6f |," says |Princeto|
|00002210| 6e 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d | 69 73 74 20 41 6c 61 6e |n econom|ist Alan|
|00002220| 20 42 6c 69 6e 64 65 72 | 2c 20 61 0d 0a 6c 65 61 | Blinder|, a..lea|
|00002230| 64 69 6e 67 20 65 78 70 | 6f 6e 65 6e 74 20 6f 66 |ding exp|onent of|
|00002240| 20 74 68 65 20 73 63 68 | 6f 6f 6c 20 6f 66 20 74 | the sch|ool of t|
|00002250| 68 6f 75 67 68 74 2e 20 | 42 6c 69 6e 64 65 72 20 |hought. |Blinder |
|00002260| 69 6e 73 69 73 74 73 2c | 0d 0a 68 6f 77 65 76 65 |insists,|..howeve|
|00002270| 72 2c 20 74 68 61 74 20 | 74 68 65 20 64 65 66 69 |r, that |the defi|
|00002280| 63 69 74 73 20 68 61 76 | 65 20 67 6f 74 20 66 61 |cits hav|e got fa|
|00002290| 72 20 6f 75 74 20 6f 66 | 20 68 61 6e 64 2e 0d 0a |r out of| hand...|
|000022a0| 0d 0a 20 20 20 20 57 68 | 69 6c 65 20 65 63 6f 6e |.. Wh|ile econ|
|000022b0| 6f 6d 69 73 74 73 20 6d | 61 79 20 62 65 20 6d 6f |omists m|ay be mo|
|000022c0| 72 65 20 6f 70 65 6e 20 | 74 6f 20 70 65 61 63 65 |re open |to peace|
|000022d0| 66 75 6c 20 63 6f 65 78 | 69 73 74 65 6e 63 65 2c |ful coex|istence,|
|000022e0| 0d 0a 74 68 65 79 20 73 | 74 69 6c 6c 20 74 65 6e |..they s|till ten|
|000022f0| 64 20 74 6f 20 66 6f 72 | 6d 20 62 61 74 74 6c 65 |d to for|m battle|
|00002300| 20 6c 69 6e 65 73 20 6f | 76 65 72 20 74 68 65 20 | lines o|ver the |
|00002310| 69 6d 70 6f 72 74 61 6e | 63 65 20 6f 66 20 74 68 |importan|ce of th|
|00002320| 65 0d 0a 62 75 64 67 65 | 74 20 64 65 66 69 63 69 |e..budge|t defici|
|00002330| 74 73 2e 20 53 6f 6d 65 | 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 |ts. Some| economi|
|00002340| 73 74 73 20 63 6f 6e 74 | 65 6e 64 20 74 68 61 74 |sts cont|end that|
|00002350| 20 74 68 65 20 64 65 66 | 69 63 69 74 20 69 73 20 | the def|icit is |
|00002360| 6e 6f 0d 0a 6c 6f 6e 67 | 65 72 20 61 20 6d 65 6e |no..long|er a men|
|00002370| 61 63 65 20 62 65 63 61 | 75 73 65 20 69 74 20 68 |ace beca|use it h|
|00002380| 61 73 20 73 68 72 75 6e | 6b 20 66 72 6f 6d 20 6d |as shrun|k from m|
|00002390| 6f 72 65 20 74 68 61 6e | 20 36 25 20 6f 66 20 74 |ore than| 6% of t|
|000023a0| 68 65 0d 0a 67 72 6f 73 | 73 20 6e 61 74 69 6f 6e |he..gros|s nation|
|000023b0| 61 6c 20 70 72 6f 64 75 | 63 74 20 69 6e 20 31 39 |al produ|ct in 19|
|000023c0| 38 33 20 74 6f 20 61 62 | 6f 75 74 20 33 25 20 72 |83 to ab|out 3% r|
|000023d0| 69 67 68 74 20 6e 6f 77 | 2e 20 54 68 61 74 20 69 |ight now|. That i|
|000023e0| 73 0d 0a 6c 6f 77 65 72 | 20 74 68 61 6e 20 74 68 |s..lower| than th|
|000023f0| 65 20 6c 65 76 65 6c 20 | 6f 66 20 64 65 66 69 63 |e level |of defic|
|00002400| 69 74 20 73 70 65 6e 64 | 69 6e 67 20 64 75 72 69 |it spend|ing duri|
|00002410| 6e 67 20 31 39 37 35 2d | 37 36 2c 20 66 6f 72 0d |ng 1975-|76, for.|
|00002420| 0a 65 78 61 6d 70 6c 65 | 2c 20 77 68 65 6e 20 74 |.example|, when t|
|00002430| 68 65 20 67 61 70 20 77 | 61 73 20 77 69 64 65 6e |he gap w|as widen|
|00002440| 65 64 20 62 79 20 61 20 | 72 65 63 65 73 73 69 6f |ed by a |recessio|
|00002450| 6e 2e 20 46 72 69 65 64 | 6d 61 6e 20 73 61 79 73 |n. Fried|man says|
|00002460| 0d 0a 68 65 20 61 63 63 | 65 70 74 73 20 74 68 65 |..he acc|epts the|
|00002470| 20 64 65 66 69 63 69 74 | 20 62 65 63 61 75 73 65 | deficit| because|
|00002480| 20 69 74 20 68 61 73 20 | 72 65 73 74 72 61 69 6e | it has |restrain|
|00002490| 65 64 20 66 65 64 65 72 | 61 6c 0d 0a 73 70 65 6e |ed feder|al..spen|
|000024a0| 64 69 6e 67 2e 20 22 53 | 6f 6d 65 74 69 6d 65 73 |ding. "S|ometimes|
|000024b0| 20 79 6f 75 20 68 61 76 | 65 20 74 6f 20 63 68 6f | you hav|e to cho|
|000024c0| 6f 73 65 20 74 68 65 20 | 6c 65 73 73 65 72 20 6f |ose the |lesser o|
|000024d0| 66 20 74 77 6f 0d 0a 65 | 76 69 6c 73 2c 22 20 68 |f two..e|vils," h|
|000024e0| 65 20 73 61 79 73 2e 20 | 57 68 69 6c 65 20 46 72 |e says. |While Fr|
|000024f0| 69 65 64 6d 61 6e 20 61 | 64 6d 69 74 73 20 74 68 |iedman a|dmits th|
|00002500| 61 74 20 22 6d 69 6e 65 | 20 69 73 20 6e 6f 74 20 |at "mine| is not |
|00002510| 74 68 65 0d 0a 6d 61 6a | 6f 72 69 74 79 20 76 69 |the..maj|ority vi|
|00002520| 65 77 2c 22 20 68 65 20 | 61 64 64 73 2c 20 22 45 |ew," he |adds, "E|
|00002530| 76 65 72 79 62 6f 64 79 | 20 6c 6f 6f 6b 73 20 61 |verybody| looks a|
|00002540| 74 20 74 68 65 20 77 6f | 72 6c 64 20 74 68 72 6f |t the wo|rld thro|
|00002550| 75 67 68 0d 0a 68 69 73 | 20 6f 77 6e 20 67 6c 61 |ugh..his| own gla|
|00002560| 73 73 65 73 2c 20 61 6e | 64 20 74 68 6f 73 65 20 |sses, an|d those |
|00002570| 67 6c 61 73 73 65 73 20 | 6d 65 61 6e 20 6d 6f 72 |glasses |mean mor|
|00002580| 65 20 74 68 61 6e 20 74 | 68 65 20 66 61 63 74 73 |e than t|he facts|
|00002590| 20 79 6f 75 0d 0a 61 72 | 65 20 6c 6f 6f 6b 69 6e | you..ar|e lookin|
|000025a0| 67 20 61 74 2e 22 0d 0a | 0d 0a 20 20 20 20 4d 61 |g at."..|.. Ma|
|000025b0| 6e 79 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f | 6d 69 73 74 73 20 68 61 |ny econo|mists ha|
|000025c0| 76 65 20 62 65 65 6e 20 | 73 74 61 72 69 6e 67 20 |ve been |staring |
|000025d0| 74 68 72 6f 75 67 68 20 | 61 20 76 65 69 6c 20 6f |through |a veil o|
|000025e0| 66 0d 0a 6d 61 74 68 65 | 6d 61 74 69 63 73 20 74 |f..mathe|matics t|
|000025f0| 68 61 74 20 63 61 6e 20 | 66 75 72 74 68 65 72 20 |hat can |further |
|00002600| 64 69 73 74 6f 72 74 20 | 77 68 61 74 20 74 68 65 |distort |what the|
|00002610| 79 20 73 65 65 2e 20 22 | 45 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 63 |y see. "|Economic|
|00002620| 73 0d 0a 72 65 73 65 61 | 72 63 68 20 68 61 73 20 |s..resea|rch has |
|00002630| 62 65 63 6f 6d 65 20 6d | 6f 72 65 20 61 20 67 61 |become m|ore a ga|
|00002640| 6d 65 20 6f 66 20 63 68 | 65 73 73 20 74 68 61 6e |me of ch|ess than|
|00002650| 20 61 20 73 65 61 72 63 | 68 20 66 6f 72 0d 0a 75 | a searc|h for..u|
|00002660| 6e 64 65 72 73 74 61 6e | 64 69 6e 67 20 72 65 61 |nderstan|ding rea|
|00002670| 6c 69 74 79 2c 22 20 73 | 61 79 73 20 65 63 6f 6e |lity," s|ays econ|
|00002680| 6f 6d 69 73 74 20 44 61 | 76 69 64 20 43 6f 6c 61 |omist Da|vid Cola|
|00002690| 6e 64 65 72 20 6f 66 0d | 0a 4d 69 64 64 6c 65 62 |nder of.|.Middleb|
|000026a0| 75 72 79 20 43 6f 6c 6c | 65 67 65 20 69 6e 20 56 |ury Coll|ege in V|
|000026b0| 65 72 6d 6f 6e 74 2e 20 | 43 6f 6c 61 6e 64 65 72 |ermont. |Colander|
|000026c0| 20 61 6e 64 20 41 72 6a | 6f 20 4b 6c 61 6d 65 72 | and Arj|o Klamer|
|000026d0| 2c 20 61 0d 0a 76 69 73 | 69 74 69 6e 67 20 70 72 |, a..vis|iting pr|
|000026e0| 6f 66 65 73 73 6f 72 20 | 61 74 20 74 68 65 20 55 |ofessor |at the U|
|000026f0| 6e 69 76 65 72 73 69 74 | 79 20 6f 66 20 49 6f 77 |niversit|y of Iow|
|00002700| 61 2c 20 73 75 72 76 65 | 79 65 64 20 6d 6f 72 65 |a, surve|yed more|
|00002710| 0d 0a 74 68 61 6e 20 32 | 30 30 20 67 72 61 64 75 |..than 2|00 gradu|
|00002720| 61 74 65 20 73 74 75 64 | 65 6e 74 73 20 61 74 20 |ate stud|ents at |
|00002730| 73 69 78 20 74 6f 70 20 | 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 63 |six top |economic|
|00002740| 73 20 64 65 70 61 72 74 | 6d 65 6e 74 73 2e 0d 0a |s depart|ments...|
|00002750| 57 68 65 6e 20 74 68 65 | 20 73 74 75 64 65 6e 74 |When the| student|
|00002760| 73 20 77 65 72 65 20 61 | 73 6b 65 64 20 77 68 61 |s were a|sked wha|
|00002770| 74 20 69 74 20 74 6f 6f | 6b 20 74 6f 20 61 64 76 |t it too|k to adv|
|00002780| 61 6e 63 65 20 72 61 70 | 69 64 6c 79 20 69 6e 0d |ance rap|idly in.|
|00002790| 0a 74 68 65 20 65 63 6f | 6e 6f 6d 69 63 73 20 70 |.the eco|nomics p|
|000027a0| 72 6f 66 65 73 73 69 6f | 6e 2c 20 61 6e 20 61 73 |rofessio|n, an as|
|000027b0| 74 6f 6e 69 73 68 69 6e | 67 20 36 38 25 20 73 61 |tonishin|g 68% sa|
|000027c0| 69 64 20 22 61 20 74 68 | 6f 72 6f 75 67 68 0d 0a |id "a th|orough..|
|000027d0| 6b 6e 6f 77 6c 65 64 67 | 65 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 |knowledg|e of the|
|000027e0| 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 79 | 22 20 77 61 73 20 75 6e | economy|" was un|
|000027f0| 69 6d 70 6f 72 74 61 6e | 74 2e 20 41 74 20 74 68 |importan|t. At th|
|00002800| 65 20 73 61 6d 65 20 74 | 69 6d 65 2c 0d 0a 35 37 |e same t|ime,..57|
|00002810| 25 20 70 69 63 6b 65 64 | 20 22 65 78 63 65 6c 6c |% picked| "excell|
|00002820| 65 6e 63 65 20 69 6e 20 | 6d 61 74 68 65 6d 61 74 |ence in |mathemat|
|00002830| 69 63 73 22 20 61 73 20 | 74 68 65 20 6b 65 79 20 |ics" as |the key |
|00002840| 74 6f 20 73 75 63 63 65 | 73 73 2e 0d 0a 53 61 69 |to succe|ss...Sai|
|00002850| 64 20 61 20 62 65 6d 75 | 73 65 64 20 73 74 75 64 |d a bemu|sed stud|
|00002860| 65 6e 74 3a 20 22 59 6f | 75 20 63 61 6e 20 77 61 |ent: "Yo|u can wa|
|00002870| 6c 6b 20 69 6e 20 6f 66 | 66 20 74 68 65 20 73 74 |lk in of|f the st|
|00002880| 72 65 65 74 20 61 6e 64 | 20 74 61 6b 65 0d 0a 74 |reet and| take..t|
|00002890| 68 65 20 63 6f 75 72 73 | 65 73 2c 20 61 6e 64 20 |he cours|es, and |
|000028a0| 6e 6f 74 20 6b 6e 6f 77 | 20 77 68 61 74 20 74 68 |not know| what th|
|000028b0| 65 20 46 4f 52 54 55 4e | 45 20 35 30 30 20 69 73 |e FORTUN|E 500 is|
|000028c0| 2c 20 61 6e 64 20 62 6c | 61 7a 65 0d 0a 74 68 72 |, and bl|aze..thr|
|000028d0| 6f 75 67 68 20 77 69 74 | 68 20 66 6c 79 69 6e 67 |ough wit|h flying|
|000028e0| 20 63 6f 6c 6f 72 73 2e | 22 0d 0a 0d 0a 20 20 20 | colors.|".... |
|000028f0| 20 42 75 74 20 6d 61 6e | 79 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d | But man|y econom|
|00002900| 69 73 74 73 20 61 72 65 | 20 6e 6f 74 20 63 6f 6e |ists are| not con|
|00002910| 74 65 6e 74 20 74 6f 20 | 66 69 64 64 6c 65 20 77 |tent to |fiddle w|
|00002920| 69 74 68 0d 0a 6d 61 74 | 68 65 6d 61 74 69 63 61 |ith..mat|hematica|
|00002930| 6c 20 6d 6f 64 65 6c 73 | 2e 20 54 68 65 79 20 77 |l models|. They w|
|00002940| 61 6e 74 20 74 6f 20 75 | 6e 64 65 72 73 74 61 6e |ant to u|nderstan|
|00002950| 64 20 74 68 65 20 46 4f | 52 54 55 4e 45 20 35 30 |d the FO|RTUNE 50|
|00002960| 30 0d 0a 63 6f 72 70 6f | 72 61 74 69 6f 6e 73 20 |0..corpo|rations |
|00002970| 61 6e 64 20 74 68 65 20 | 72 65 73 74 20 6f 66 20 |and the |rest of |
|00002980| 74 68 65 20 65 63 6f 6e | 6f 6d 79 2c 20 69 6e 20 |the econ|omy, in |
|00002990| 61 6c 6c 20 69 74 73 20 | 6d 65 73 73 79 20 61 6e |all its |messy an|
|000029a0| 64 0d 0a 65 76 65 72 20 | 63 68 61 6e 67 69 6e 67 |d..ever |changing|
|000029b0| 20 63 6f 6d 70 6c 65 78 | 69 74 79 2e 20 54 68 61 | complex|ity. Tha|
|000029c0| 74 20 63 61 6c 6c 73 20 | 66 6f 72 20 75 73 69 6e |t calls |for usin|
|000029d0| 67 20 63 6f 6d 6d 6f 6e | 20 73 65 6e 73 65 20 61 |g common| sense a|
|000029e0| 73 0d 0a 77 65 6c 6c 20 | 61 73 20 65 6c 65 67 61 |s..well |as elega|
|000029f0| 6e 74 20 66 6f 72 6d 75 | 6c 61 73 2c 20 61 6e 64 |nt formu|las, and|
|00002a00| 20 73 74 75 64 79 69 6e | 67 20 73 6f 63 69 61 6c | studyin|g social|
|00002a10| 20 61 6e 64 20 74 65 63 | 68 6e 6f 6c 6f 67 69 63 | and tec|hnologic|
|00002a20| 61 6c 0d 0a 74 72 65 6e | 64 73 20 61 6c 6f 6e 67 |al..tren|ds along|
|00002a30| 20 77 69 74 68 20 68 69 | 73 74 6f 72 69 63 61 6c | with hi|storical|
|00002a40| 20 64 61 74 61 2e 20 57 | 72 69 74 69 6e 67 20 61 | data. W|riting a|
|00002a50| 62 6f 75 74 20 41 64 61 | 6d 20 53 6d 69 74 68 20 |bout Ada|m Smith |
|00002a60| 61 6e 64 0d 0a 6f 74 68 | 65 72 20 67 72 65 61 74 |and..oth|er great|
|00002a70| 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 | 73 74 73 2c 20 61 75 74 | economi|sts, aut|
|00002a80| 68 6f 72 20 52 6f 62 65 | 72 74 20 48 65 69 6c 62 |hor Robe|rt Heilb|
|00002a90| 72 6f 6e 65 72 20 63 61 | 6c 6c 65 64 20 74 68 65 |roner ca|lled the|
|00002aa0| 6d 0d 0a 22 77 6f 72 6c | 64 6c 79 20 70 68 69 6c |m.."worl|dly phil|
|00002ab0| 6f 73 6f 70 68 65 72 73 | 22 20 77 68 6f 20 77 65 |osophers|" who we|
|00002ac0| 72 65 20 22 66 61 73 63 | 69 6e 61 74 65 64 20 62 |re "fasc|inated b|
|00002ad0| 79 20 74 68 65 20 77 6f | 72 6c 64 20 61 62 6f 75 |y the wo|rld abou|
|00002ae0| 74 0d 0a 74 68 65 6d 22 | 20 61 6e 64 20 22 61 62 |t..them"| and "ab|
|00002af0| 73 6f 72 62 65 64 20 69 | 6e 20 74 68 65 20 62 65 |sorbed i|n the be|
|00002b00| 68 61 76 69 6f 72 20 6f | 66 20 74 68 65 69 72 20 |havior o|f their |
|00002b10| 66 65 6c 6c 6f 77 20 6d | 61 6e 2e 22 0d 0a 0d 0a |fellow m|an."....|
|00002b20| 20 20 20 20 4d 6f 64 65 | 72 6e 20 77 6f 72 6c 64 | Mode|rn world|
|00002b30| 6c 79 20 70 68 69 6c 6f | 73 6f 70 68 65 72 73 20 |ly philo|sophers |
|00002b40| 61 72 65 20 6e 65 65 64 | 65 64 20 69 6e 20 47 65 |are need|ed in Ge|
|00002b50| 6f 72 67 65 20 42 75 73 | 68 27 73 0d 0a 57 61 73 |orge Bus|h's..Was|
|00002b60| 68 69 6e 67 74 6f 6e 20 | 61 6e 64 20 65 76 65 72 |hington |and ever|
|00002b70| 79 77 68 65 72 65 20 65 | 6c 73 65 20 74 68 61 74 |ywhere e|lse that|
|00002b80| 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f 6d 69 | 63 20 64 65 63 69 73 69 | economi|c decisi|
|00002b90| 6f 6e 73 20 61 72 65 20 | 6d 61 64 65 2e 0d 0a 54 |ons are |made...T|
|00002ba0| 68 65 79 20 63 61 6e 20 | 70 72 6f 76 69 64 65 20 |hey can |provide |
|00002bb0| 77 68 61 74 20 44 6f 6e | 61 6c 64 20 4d 63 43 6c |what Don|ald McCl|
|00002bc0| 6f 73 6b 65 79 2c 20 61 | 20 55 6e 69 76 65 72 73 |oskey, a| Univers|
|00002bd0| 69 74 79 20 6f 66 20 49 | 6f 77 61 0d 0a 65 63 6f |ity of I|owa..eco|
|00002be0| 6e 6f 6d 69 63 20 68 69 | 73 74 6f 72 69 61 6e 2c |nomic hi|storian,|
|00002bf0| 20 63 61 6c 6c 73 20 22 | 72 65 61 6c 69 74 79 20 | calls "|reality |
|00002c00| 63 68 65 63 6b 73 20 2d | 2d 20 73 74 61 74 65 6d |checks -|- statem|
|00002c10| 65 6e 74 73 20 6f 66 20 | 77 68 61 74 0d 0a 6d 61 |ents of |what..ma|
|00002c20| 79 20 68 61 70 70 65 6e | 20 61 73 20 61 20 72 65 |y happen| as a re|
|00002c30| 73 75 6c 74 20 6f 66 20 | 70 6f 6c 69 63 69 65 73 |sult of |policies|
|00002c40| 2e 22 20 53 75 63 68 20 | 73 74 61 74 65 6d 65 6e |." Such |statemen|
|00002c50| 74 73 20 6d 61 79 20 6e | 6f 74 20 62 65 0d 0a 74 |ts may n|ot be..t|
|00002c60| 68 65 20 73 69 6e 67 6c | 65 2d 6d 69 6e 64 65 64 |he singl|e-minded|
|00002c70| 20 61 64 76 69 63 65 20 | 74 68 61 74 20 48 61 72 | advice |that Har|
|00002c80| 72 79 20 54 72 75 6d 61 | 6e 20 6c 6f 6e 67 65 64 |ry Truma|n longed|
|00002c90| 20 66 6f 72 2e 20 42 75 | 74 20 74 68 65 79 0d 0a | for. Bu|t they..|
|00002ca0| 77 69 6c 6c 20 61 74 20 | 6c 65 61 73 74 20 62 65 |will at |least be|
|00002cb0| 20 67 72 6f 75 6e 64 65 | 64 20 69 6e 20 74 68 65 | grounde|d in the|
|00002cc0| 20 72 65 61 6c 20 77 6f | 72 6c 64 20 72 61 74 68 | real wo|rld rath|
|00002cd0| 65 72 20 74 68 61 6e 20 | 69 6e 20 74 68 65 0d 0a |er than |in the..|
|00002ce0| 61 69 72 79 20 72 65 61 | 6c 6d 73 20 6f 66 20 61 |airy rea|lms of a|
|00002cf0| 62 73 74 72 61 63 74 20 | 6d 61 74 68 65 6d 61 74 |bstract |mathemat|
|00002d00| 69 63 73 20 61 6e 64 20 | 77 69 73 68 66 75 6c 20 |ics and |wishful |
|00002d10| 74 68 69 6e 6b 69 6e 67 | 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a 0d 0a |thinking|....... |
+--------+-------------------------+-------------------------+--------+--------+